Euro to dollar today rate: US Dollar Hits 52-Week High in Cleanest-Dirty-Shirt-Syndrome on New ECB Stimulus, as Old ECB Stimulus Fails to Stimulate

That the markets gave a thumbs down is harder to figure. The GDP downgrade was well advertised beforehand. So we single out the TLTRO…was it ECB putting its policy where its mouth was…or not enough of that. I don’t think further easing was written in, but it could be the market leading the way by speculating on a bigger easing, those that did got caught short. Remember a lot of lending in european countries is variable rate, so if rates go up banks don’t nescessarily make a bigger margin, investors in them do, but only if the books stay whole – if borrowers go under they show up negative on the books of banks. So any further easing should be positive for banks in their known circumstance… basically it’s all managed though, so when Draghi said “we’re all screwed” markets just decided to agree this time as he didn’t come up with any new ideas to lift them. I don’t see where they are going to get any real new activity in EU, and if they do try to cash in on any then raising rates will squash it. So short of bringing down more than delinquent structures by raising rates early, using external inflation shocks for example as pretext, it looks to me that EU is going to remain a swamp for quite a while… but people aren’t supposed to consider that I think… so it’s all just a bit of a permanent delay.

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