Since President Trump escalated the trade war tension between the US and China on May 5 th , Brent crude futures have in fact risen over 4.5% amid the rising geopolitical tensions in the middle east ( full story ). While trade war tensions have seen dips in oil prices, this has failed to keep a lid on higher oil prices as the rising geopolitical premium has been the key driver in the oil market. Alongside this, the backwardation in the 6-month Brent crude futures has surged to the highest level in over 4years at $3.31 (above 2018 peak of $3), consequently, implying that oil inventories could see a large drawdown later in the year. However, despite the surge in backwardation which is typically seen as a bullish sign as it hints at undersupply, this has not been associated with a notable lift in the spot price, which still has some way to go until the 2018 peak. As such, in order to remove this discrepancy oil prices could rise, or backwardation will have to ease.