“We see potential for a gradual grind higher in EURUSD, but EUR may underperform on the crosses, particularly against higher-yielding, cyclical currencies. As markets trade the global reflation theme, EUR may be increasingly used for funding carry trades as the ECB remains committed to low rates, pushing EUR lower against higher-yielding currencies. However, signs of stabilization in EMU and RoW growth, coupled with a stronger RMB, should weaken the USD broadly, suggesting EURUSD may grind higher gradually,” says Hans Redeker, head of FX strategy at Morgan Stanley, in a note to clients.
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