“Markets are converging on a scenario of May’s early exit and her replacement with a pro-Brexit PM and, implicitly, a growing risk of no deal exit and GBP weakness as a result. On Betfair’s prices, the Q3 peak probability of May’s departure date is now almost 80% and Johnson is increasing his lead as likely next PM. Today, this stands at 22% – more than double that of the next most likely candidate,” says Adam Cole, chief currency strategist at RBC.
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