Usd to euro exchange rate graph: Weekly Market Outlook

It’s hard to say what would get the BoJ to move again. Its goal used to be hitting its inflation target. Any downward revisions to its price outlook in the quarterly Outlook Report were therefore likely to be accompanied by or followed by further easing. However, that link is now gone as the BoJ is emphasizing the much fuzzier concept of “momentum toward the 2% price stability target” in decisions about policy. What this momentum consists of isn’t clear, but as the graph above of inflation expectations shows, whatever it is, it’s not working yet. Meanwhile, they’re well aware that pushing short rates deeper into negative territory would hurt bank profitability, a negative spillover effect from a policy that might not even be effective. I think the hurdle for further BoJ easing is quite high as a result. I don’t expect any change out of this meeting. Accordingly, I expect JPY to be little changed. 

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